Connect with us

Business

Santa Claus rally is off to best start in 20 years. Here’s what history says about the stock market’s performance when rally starts this well.

Published

on

Santa Claus is handed out a late gift to Wall Street.

The so-called Santa Claus rally that tends to materialize in the U.S. stock market in the final week of December and the first two trading sessions of the new year, is off to the best start to a Santa Claus rally since the 2000-2001 stretch, when the market gained 5.7% over the period, according to Dow Jones Market Data.


Dow Jones Market Data

In fact, in the eight occasions since 1929 when the index has gained at least 1% to start that seven-session trading period near the end of year, the Santa Claus rally has produced a gain 100% of the time, with an average gain of 3.3%.

At last check, the S&P 500
SPX,
+1.23%

was trading in record territory, up around 1.1% on Monday, technically marking the start of the seasonal period referred to as the Santa Claus rally; and if gains hold up, the stock market tends to perform well, the data show.

The update mood on Monday to start the final week of trading in 2021 was helping to lift the Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
+0.85%
,
and the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
+1.29%
,
with even risk assets such as bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+1.50%

being driven higher to start the week.

Sign up for our Market Watch Newsletters here.

Read: If Santa Claus doesn’t come to Wall Street in December, the Grinch hits the stock market in January, history says

How does the market perform for the rest of January?

January on average tends to end higher, with a mean gain of 2.94% and median rise of 3.7%, when the S&P 500 has started the Santa Claus rally with an advance of at least 1%.

Check outMerry Christmas, Wall Street! But there’s no New Year’s Day holiday for the stock market this year—here’s why.

The Santa Claus rally trend was first identified by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, which is now run by his son Jeff.

Hirsh was known for saying that “if Santa should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for LPL Financial, notes that losses during the Santa Claus rally period have tended to lead to negative results for January too. Those include losses during 1999, 2005, 2008, 2015 and 2016.

To be sure, past performance is no guarantee of future performance and the statistical trends for the market’s performance post-Santa Claus rally are fairly thin.

MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert writes that even with statistics and theory on its side, “the Santa Claus rally doesn’t amount to a guarantee.” 

—Ken Jimenez contributed to this article.

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Business

Teladoc Tumbled 38% After Big First-Quarter Loss. Is It Just a Pandemic Play?

Published

on

Text size

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

After pandemic drop, Canada’s detention of immigrants rises again By Reuters

Published

on


© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Two closed Canadian border checkpoints are seen after it was announced that the border would close to “non-essential traffic” to combat the spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the U.S.-Canada border crossing at the Thousand Isla

By Anna Mehler Paperny

TORONTO (Reuters) – Canada is locking up more people in immigration detention without charge after the numbers fell during the pandemic, government data obtained by Reuters shows.

Authorities cite an overall rise in foreign travelers amid easing restrictions but lawyers say their detained clients came to Canada years ago.

Canada held 206 people in immigration detention as of March 1, 2022 – a 28% increase compared with March 1 of the previous year. Immigration detainees have not been charged with crimes in Canada and 68% of detainees as of March 1 were locked up because Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) fears they are “unlikely to appear” at an immigration hearing, according to the data.

The rise puts Canada at odds with Amnesty International and other human rights groups that have urged Ottawa to end its use of indefinite immigration detention, noting CBSA has used factors such as a person’s mental illness as reason to detain them.

A CBSA spokesperson told Reuters that “when the number of entries (to Canada) goes up, an increase in detention is to be expected.” CBSA has said in the past it uses detention as a last resort.

A lawyer told Reuters her detained clients have been in Canada for years.

In the United Kingdom, too, immigration detention levels rose last year after dropping earlier in the pandemic, according to government statistics. Unlike Canada, the United States and Australia, European Union member states have limits on immigration detention and those limits cannot exceed six months.

The rise in detentions puts people at risk of contracting COVID-19 in harsh congregate settings, refugee lawyers say.

Julia Sande, Human Rights Law and Policy Campaigner with Amnesty, called the increase in detentions “disappointing but not surprising,” although she was reluctant to draw conclusions from limited data.

The number of immigration detainees in Canada dropped early in the pandemic, from a daily average of 301 in the fourth quarter (January through March) of 2019-20 to 126 in the first quarter (April through June) of 2020-21.

FEW NO-SHOWS AS DETENTIONS DROPPED

Detaining fewer people did not result in a significant increase in no-shows at immigration hearings – the most common reason for detention, according to Immigration and Refugee Board data.

The average number of no-shows as a percentage of admissibility hearings was about 5.5% in 2021, according to that data, compared to about 5.9% in 2019.

No-shows rose as high as 16% in October 2020, but a spokesperson for the Immigration and Refugee Board said this was due to people not receiving notifications when their hearings resumed after a pause in the pandemic.

Refugee lawyer Andrew Brouwer said the decline in detention earlier in the pandemic shows Canada does not need to lock up as many non-citizens.

“We didn’t see a bunch of no-shows. We didn’t see the sky fall … It for sure shows that the system can operate without throwing people in jail,” Brouwer said.

He added that detainees face harsh pandemic conditions in provincial jails – including extended lockdowns, sometimes with three people in a cell for 23 hours a day.

Refugee lawyer Swathi Sekhar said CBSA officials and the Immigration and Refugee Board members reviewing detentions took the risk of COVID-19 into account when deciding whether someone should be detained earlier in the pandemic but are doing so less now.

“Their position is that COVID is not a factor that should weigh in favor of release,” she said.

“We also see very, very perverse findings … [decision-makers] outright saying that individuals are going to be safer in jail.”

The Immigration and Refugee Board did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Nasdaq futures rise as market attempts comeback from April sell-off, Meta shares soar

Published

on

Stock futures rose in overnight trading as the market shook off the April sell-off and investors reacted positively to earnings from Meta Platforms.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 70 points or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 1.2%.

The moves came as shares of Meta surged more than 18% after hours following a beat on earnings but a miss on revenue, a sign that investors may see signs of relief in the beaten-up tech sector. Shares were down 48% on the year heading into the results.

Meanwhile, shares of Qualcomm gained 5.6% in extended trading on the back of strong earnings while PayPal rose 5% despite issuing weak guidance for the second quarter.

“I think a lot of people want to believe that earnings are going to pull us out of this, but earnings are not what got us into this,” SoFi’s Liz Young told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” on Wednesday. “… But the reality is there are so many macro headwinds still in front of us in the next 60 days that the market is just hard to impress.”

The after-hour activity followed a volatile regular trading session that saw the Nasdaq Composite stoop to its lowest level in 2022, as stocks looked to bounce back from a tech-led April sell-off. The index is down more than 12% since the start of April.

In Wednesday’s regular trading, the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended at 12,488.93, after rising to 1.7% at session highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 61.75 points, or 0.2%, to 33,301.93 propped up by gains from Visa and Microsoft, while the S&P 500 added 0.2% to 4,183.96.

Investors await big tech earnings on Thursday from Apple, Amazon and Twitter, along with results from Robinhood. Jobless claims are also due out Thursday.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending